What is the Hawk-O-Meter?
The Hawk-O-Meter tracks publicly available economic data that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) considers when setting the cash rate. It combines these indicators into a single score out of 100.
Below 50 = economic data suggests pressure to cut interest rates. Above 50 = data suggests pressure to raise them.
This is not a prediction or financial advice. It is a mathematical summary of publicly available data.
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Score out of 100. Below 50 = pressure to cut rates. Above 50 = pressure to raise rates.
What Markets Expect
RBA Cash Rate
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Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
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Cash Rate History
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Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
Economic Indicators
How We Calculate the Score
Step 1: Gather the data
We pull monthly and quarterly figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and other public sources. Seven indicators are scored and weighted to reflect how much the RBA typically cares about each factor.
Step 2: Measure the trend
For each indicator we compare the latest value to the same month last year (year-on-year percentage change). This means we’re measuring direction, not absolute levels — so it doesn’t matter whether a number is big or small, only whether it’s rising or falling.
Step 3: Compare to history
We calculate how unusual the current growth rate is compared to the last 10 years. The method is called a robust z-score (it uses the median and median absolute deviation instead of the mean, so a single extreme quarter like COVID doesn’t distort everything). The result is a −3 to +3 range, which we then scale to 0–100 for the gauge.
Step 4: Combine into one score
Each indicator’s 0–100 gauge reading is multiplied by its weight, then summed. The result is the Hawk Score you see at the top of the page.
| Indicator | Weight | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation (CPI) | 25% | Primary RBA mandate |
| Wages (WPI) | 15% | Key input to inflation expectations |
| Employment | 15% | RBA dual mandate: full employment |
| Housing | 15% | Financial stability concern |
| Household Spending | 10% | Consumer demand pressure |
| Business Confidence | 5% | Forward-looking sentiment |
| Building Approvals | 5% | Leading indicator for construction |
ASX Rate Futures are shown for context but excluded from the score calculation — they reflect market expectations, not economic fundamentals.
Explore Rate Scenarios
See how different interest rates could affect a typical Australian mortgage. Adjust the inputs below and use the scenario slider to explore various market conditions.
Illustrative Estimates Only — This calculator shows how different interest rates affect a typical mortgage. Results are estimates and do not include fees, charges, or rate variations over time. This is not financial advice.
Average Australian mortgage: ~$600,000
Most common: 25 or 30 years
Current RBA cash rate: 3.85%
Slide to explore: What if rates were a different percentage?
Current Repayment
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Scenario Repayment
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Difference per period
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Annual difference
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| Interest Rate | Repayment | Annual Cost | Difference |
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Calculations based on standard amortization formula. Interest rate data: Reserve Bank of Australia.